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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a pivotal journey to Washington to meet American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial in-person encounter for the two leaders following an extended period of escalating strains and sharp rhetoric.

Topics for Talks

The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, security, and US strikes on alleged drug vessels are set to be top on the agenda when they gather at the US presidential residence on Tuesday.

A History of Strained Relations

While the two men were polite in a phone call after a recent US military operation, Petro has subsequently said he believes there is a "genuine danger" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has earlier remarked that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".

Tuesday's meeting follows an extended period of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly criticised ongoing US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.

"His stance shifted," the US President was quoted as saying ahead of the Washington meeting.

Areas of Disagreement

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to halt the flow of narcotics toward the United States, and has vowed to expand strikes to terrestrial objectives throughout the area.

But, the acrimony seemed to subside following a "cordial" telephone conversation between the two presidents, which a Colombian official later described as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".

Mediating Role

Per insiders, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in facilitating the conversation. "I have faith in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the senator was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."

Border Security and the Guerrilla Group

Prior to Tuesday's visit, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would focus on mutual US and Colombian concerns over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an extensive border.

Much of that border is under the sway of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, controls drug trafficking, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Venezuelan government.

For Trump, tackling the challenge of the ELN will be vital to ensuring safety for US firms engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts point out that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt economic ambitions by attacking foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.

Counter-Narcotics Cooperation

An equally pressing issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the global largest source of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a temporary pause on intelligence sharing with US security agencies following Trump's threats.

The US has, in turn, officially designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on Colombian officials, including the president and members of his family.

"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to sever Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."

Possible Scenarios

Despite several issues for collaboration, the possibility for a confrontation exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."

For the Colombian leader, even a difficult meeting could be advantageous. His presidential term ends in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could influence the political future of his chosen candidate.

"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win situation," said a regional expert. "A positive outcome undermines criticism... If talks sour, he's defending national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favor."